THE GENERIC – AT 12:31 P.M. ET:   The midterms are still about five months away, about 30 lifetimes in politics.  But, still, the Dems should, based on historical precedent, be much further ahead in the generic ballot than they are.

Usually the president's party takes a beating in the first midterm election after the president takes office.  There's a general tendency to vote against the guy in the White House. 

And even FDR lost heavily in November of 1942, only11 months after Pearl Harbor.  His Democratic Party lost an incredible 45 seats in the House, and he was the commander-in-chief of a nation fighting for its life.

The Dems began 2018 dreaming of a white Christmas...no, a multicultural Christmas dominated by their victorious party.  They looked forward to November.  And, only a few months ago, they were leading in the generic Congressional poll by double digits.

Uh, not so fast, Democrats.

The latest generic poll numbers (Do you prefer Democrats or Republicans for Congress?) from RealClearPolitics shows Dems leading by only 3.7 points.  That is based on an average of six polls.  The range goes from a one-point lead in Rasmussen to a seven-point lead in Harvard-Harris. 

That's grim news for the Dems.  The public is not revolting against the Trump administration.  Today's Rasmussen tracker puts Mr. Trump's approval rating at 47%, which is not bad.  On average, he's been gaining recently.

Obviously, some event can shake everything up.  But it is curious to watch the Democratic Party fumble before our eyes.  There is really no platform, no set of proposals, nothing except the party's elders involved in a food fight. 

May it continue.

May 31,  2018